Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Weekly Market Update – Monday, June 16, 2025
Markets saw mixed performance last week as investors weighed positive economic signals against rising geopolitical tensions.
U.S.-China Trade Developments
Negotiations between the United States and China made progress. The two countries agreed on a framework to improve trade relations, including steps to accelerate the export of critical materials and review certain trade restrictions.¹
Treasury Demand Remains Strong
Investor appetite for U.S. government bonds stayed solid. A 30-year Treasury auction attracted stronger-than-expected demand, easing concerns about the government’s ability to fund long-term debt without pushing yields higher.² ³
Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in May. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.8%. A decline in gasoline prices helped limit overall inflation, raising expectations of a potential interest rate cut later in the year.⁴ ⁵
Geopolitical Concerns
Late in the week, markets retreated following reports of Israeli military strikes targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites. The news raised concerns about the risk of broader conflict and possible impacts on global oil supplies.⁶
Market Snapshot
| Data as of 6/13/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -0.4% | 1.6% | 10.0% | 16.8% | 14.3% | 11.1% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 0.2 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 3.3 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.4 | N/A | 4.2 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 2.9 | 31.6 | 48.7 | 23.3 | 15.0 | 11.3 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 1.9 | 6.6 | 2.5 | -7.5 | 10.6 | 0.5 |
The returns for the S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-U.S., Gold, and Bloomberg Commodity Index exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend). Returns for three, five, and ten years are annualized. The 10-year Treasury Note shows the yield at market close for each time period.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur fees, and cannot be invested into directly. N/A indicates data is not applicable.
Final Thoughts
For more information about these market trends or to discuss how they may impact your financial strategy, please contact our team. We are here to help you stay informed and aligned with your long-term goals.
Footnotes and Sources
- Bloomberg.com, June 10, 2025
- Barrons.com, June 12, 2025
- Bloomberg.com, June 12, 2025
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS.gov), June 2025
- Barrons.com, June 11, 2025
- Barrons.com, June 13, 2025
Disclosures
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Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and expectations that may not come to pass and could change without notice.
Market indexes referenced are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and are used for general comparison purposes. Index performance does not reflect the performance of any specific investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and MSCI EAFE Index are widely used benchmarks that represent segments of the global equity markets. U.S. Treasury securities are backed by the federal government as to timely payment of principal and interest; however, their value may fluctuate if sold prior to maturity.
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